2020 ELECTION – Donald Trump Approval Rating vs Past Presidents

2020 ELECTION – Donald Trump Approval Rating vs Past Presidents

This is the county by county election map
from 2016. Donald Trump apparently loves this map. And why shouldn’t he? This map doesn’t indicate how he actually
won, which is better demonstrated by a standard electoral college map. But it does show that, compared to Hilary
Clinton at least, he was popular throughout much of the country. Mainly the places where there aren’t very
many people, but still, it’s at least a symbol of his popularity. And popularity is, of course, very important. Politics is at the end of the day, a popularity
contest. So, compared to previous presidents, how popular
is Donald Trump? And what can that information tell us about
this question: Will he be reelected? I know this will shock the MAGA people watching
this, but he is not a popular president. You must be mistaken! According to the polls aggregations generated
by five thirty eight dot com, Trump currently has an approval rating of 42.1 percent, and
a disapproval rating of 52.3 percent, which puts his overall net approval at negative
10.2 percent. This puts him in tenth place out of the last
ten presidents at this point in their presidencies. In other words, his unpopularity is unprecedented,
going back all the way to the 1960s. Trump is less popular than Gerald Ford or
Jimmy Carter. If he’s that unpopular, you might guess he
has no chance of being re-elected in 2020. But, and this will probably shock liberals,
Trump is not in a totally ridiculous range of unpopularity, either. That’s surprising! At this point in his presidency, Ronald Reagan’s
popularity was somewhat close. And his graph looks potentially worse that
Trump’s. While Trump’s popularity seems to have been
making slight gains over the past year, Reagan’s approval ratings were in a free fall since
he took office. But wait a minute? Wasn’t Ronald Reagan re-elected? Yes, indeed! In fact, out of the 9 pre-Trump presidents
we’re looking at, four show fairly low approval ratings, not too far from Trump’s. Out of these four, three won re-election. Of the other five, who show definitively high
net approval ratings, three won re-election. So does that mean that net popularity doesn’t
matter at all? Well, no, that’s not the case either. Let’s extend these charts forward to election
time. A president is generally in office around
1400 days before they face election for their second term. Ford and LBJ are of course exceptions, since
they took office in the middle of a term, following national tragedies. In LBJ’s case, it was the assassination of
Kennedy, and in Fords case, it was Nixon’s presidency. At any rate, now the data really makes sense. LBJ was extremely popular at election time,
and had a strong performance in the electoral college. Nixon was also extremely popular at election
time, and also had a strong electoral college showing. Ford was not particularly loved or hated,
and lost, but fairly narrowly Carter was very unpopular and lost by a lot. Then, Reagan was very popular when he ran
against Mondale, and won by a lot, again Bush sr was quite unpopular when he ran for
reelection, and lost by a decent amount Clinton would go on to be pretty popular when
he ran for reelection, and won by a reasonable margin
Dubya had a decisively positive approval rating and gave Kerry a thumpin’
Obama had a similar net positive approval rating, and beat out Romney In general, I think you may have noticed that
not only does a positive net approval rating mean a re-election win, but extreme net approvals
tend to lead to big sweeps across the electoral college. No president won re election with a negative
net approval rating, and only one lost re-election with a positive one. That was Ford, and in his case, you can see
the data has a straight line for this whole period. That means there’s probably no polling information
added during that time, so it’s possible with better polling, we actually may have seen
him dip below zero. At any rate, we can conclude that you need
positive approval ratings to win reelection. If I were Donald Trump’s campaign manager,
I’d be pretty worried about his chances right now. At the same time, looking at the approval
ratings of ten different presidents, we’ve seen that approval ratings can change dramatically
over the course of a year or two. So while Trump’s historically low approval
rating will have to change by 2020 if he hopes to keep his tiny grip on the white house,
history has also shown that his current unpopularity gives little indication of how to answer this
question: Will he be reelected?

Posts created 29928

100 thoughts on “2020 ELECTION – Donald Trump Approval Rating vs Past Presidents

  1. Video summed up: If you have high approval ratings, you’ll get re-elected. Donald Trump doesn’t have high approval ratings so it’s not likely he will.

  2. I highly doubt that Trump has any chance of re-election, at least now. Think about it. Most people in the country could still be upset about the 35 day long shutdown (longest in American history) he caused, or maybe all the controversy around his border policies could be enough to keep him out of re-election. At the time of writing this comment, the election is still another 21 months away, so anything could happen really.

  3. Could've ended in video in literally 5 seconds…You can't determine the answer based on polls alone without considering the variables.

  4. I honestly don't agree with a lot of the things he say, but when compared to Bernie and Hillary, he is a lot better. It wouldn't take much to have a better candidate next year, but if there is't you can bet my sorry ass I'll vote for him again.

  5. Considering all the controversy he's been in and the damage he's caused like the shutdown, it's likely people will start voting against him.

  6. I hope he dosent.us just wants to invade some where and with iraq and Afghanistan out of the way america will probably invade iran

  7. Trump is an anomaly, he's a freak of nature. Normal logic doesn't apply to this stable genius. He's gonna win again and we are going to get a ton of meltdown videos.

  8. Of course, all these statistics have to be taken with a grain of salt, considering we have a sample size of n=9. We may be able to look at trends, but to definitively say you need to have anything would be foolish. There just haven't been enough presidential elections.

  9. I don't understand channels that try to feint that they are nonpartisan, the creator clearly wants Sanders as president, which is a fine position to have, but the bias against trump is clear if you take into account the tone of the narrator.

  10. I don't understand President Ford's inclusion. Was it because you are anti Trump and 10th out of 10 sounds worse. Just asking because I'm sure you realise Ford was never elected President. Thus his approval rating would be the lowest since no one polled voted for him.

  11. One side is saying/doing MAGA the other wants open boarders.

    2020 your family your life. stay the course infrastructure is next.

  12. Question if Reagan’s approval rating was so low then when he got re-elected why did he only loose Minnesota so when u are re-elected approval rating isn’t everything it actually doesn’t mean a ton because if ur saying trumps was really close to Reagan’s presidency well then that doesn’t really mean anything last thing the same people making those polls are the same people that said Hillary would win by a land slide and well that didn’t really happen

  13. If he builds that Wall, his popularity will skyrocket.
    The fact of the matter is liberals have gone too far left , so far as to calling USA a fascist country and demanding socialism and communism. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez will ruin their image completely.
    My verdict Trump will easily win his re-election.

  14. The only way he will not be re-elected is if the media make him out in a GOOD light during the campaign. Which they won't. Trump recieved 3billion worth of free advertising in 2016 due to his controversial remarks and the media constantly throwing him to the dogs. They elevated his success, when they thought they were doing the opposite. Clinton was bland, and boring. No one wanted to read about her, but everyone was obsessed with Trump, and he made the front page almost every day. He will use the same tactic again. And the media will fall for it.

  15. Crazy someone like trump can have such low approval ratings when he done far more for this country in 2years than Obama did in 8… good President gets low approval ratings and bad trash President get high approval ratings…

    Yup the American people really are a bunch of idiots I guess…

  16. AOC and the extreme Left Socialist Democrats will get all the Credit for getting Trump reelected In 2020. I especially have to give Thanks to AOC for helping Trump win. The Socialist Democrats offer to Bankrupt our Counrty with another 100 Trillion Dollars in debt and turn USA into the next Venezuela. The Socialist Democrats also think it ok to let a baby Die outside the womb because that is their Right . Both are extremely Immoral to kill babies and put our children into 100 Trillion in Debt . The only sane alternative to this Madness is to vote for Trump or Schwartz if he runs.

  17. Does this take into account that Trump supporters lie to the pollsters about who they support in order to screw up the rating/polling data? A lot of them did that in the last election. Trump supporters like trolling pollsters.

  18. I'll tell ya what I called first election people thought I was crazy . Guess what you will see double the republican turnout in 2020 than you saw I the first election. Dems get those tear ducks cleaned out and checked by 2020 election and get something to fight with you know

  19. This channel is really bad. It will continue to put out videos saying why Trump should lose. no sense of balance only hate

  20. Depends who the DNC nominates. Most of their candidates are cookie-cutter politicians who fail to excite the progressive base. The rest won't make it past the superdelegates in the primary. So I wouldn't count Trump out just yet.

  21. You think you'll in trouble now if trump is in for one more year you'll all be jumping over the wall.

  22. When you have 90% of media coverage against you and the all of the moderates silenced, this is what the polls will show. Democrats will produce a far left candidate making it easy for Trump to win

  23. Honestly Bernie Sanders getting into office probably wouldn't be that bad. He would probably try to push some crazy shit but it would get denied and taxes would raise. If it works out then great! if it doesnt…then the public will know to vote Republican next time around.

  24. Honestly a lot of his disapproval can be attributed to, and I know people hate to admit it, biased media organizations that skew information to favor democrats. You'd be startled and shocked to know just how many people get their information solely from TV news outlets like CNN, MSNBC, ABC, Fox, etc. That aside I have a strong historical reason to doubt polls in general even if they do favor Trump because literally every news organization and news site out there predicted Hillary to win and absolutely destroy Trump because "he's such a bigot, a racist, a homophope." <Insert slanderous unsubstantiated claim here> he was precisely that, and yet he won. The democrats have spent the past 2 years and still are dumbfounded to how and why he won and the only reason they can come up with is "Well… of course his supporters must be the same things we claim Trump is with no valid evidence." Oh, and before someone tries to say "Oh you're a Trump supporter so of course your defending him and his supporters." I didn't vote for Trump in 2016, I stayed home because I didn't approve of either of them. It just bewilders me that the democrats can't accept they are capable of being wrong and were wrong about what the majority of Americans wanted in 2016 which was a tougher immigration system, putting the American people first over foreign countries and more reasonable degree of regulation on businesses especially startups. Democrats can't accept that and so they have to pull the "Yeah well…. YOURE A RACIST SO HA!" card like the children they are.

  25. 2008 election:
    Democrats: Yay we win! Let’s ruin everything
    Republicans: oh well, back to work I guess

    2016 election:
    Republicans: yay we win! Ok back to work now
    Democrats: Wah Wah! Rapist, sexist, Russian hackers Wah!

  26. Only 1 other president has had as many people who worked for him get indited, and that was Nixon, and what happened to him?

  27. Oh yeah the entire state of Texas doesn't like him and there's not a lot of people in Texas. Get real. His approval rating if you could measure it, well let's just say this. He packs every single football stadium and has thousands outside tailgating… They tried the same thing with Reagan. I remember. Reagan had a negative 2000 approval rating… Reagan won 40 plus states 2 times… Reagan was hated by the media loved by the people. Same thing all over again with Trump. Except this is on steroids.

  28. Thank god Ocasio Cortez was born, that dumb bitch will ruin that party.

    It’s hilarious, her green new deal involves a train crossing the ocean and entering into Europe as an alternative to banning plane travel.

    I asked a Democrat’s at my college why he doesn’t want the wall. He stated “the wall won’t stop anyone and will cost 20 billion dollars” what dems don’t understand is that this so called “train” will cost America a couple trillion dollars. Who will pay for this train?

  29. I plan to legally change my name to "Many People", so that when ever Trump makes a claim about what "many people say, I will be able to point out he is lying about what I think.

  30. If you want Trump, vote Biden, Harris, Corey, or Beto. If you want to fix this country, then vote Bernie, Tulsi, or Yang.

    Hard choice for most, oddly enough.

  31. no no no, let them think that Trump will win in 2020 so that they will stay at home instead of voting… just like what happened to crooked hillary. (I hated both candidates, so disappointed that those were my options on my first presidential election)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Begin typing your search term above and press enter to search. Press ESC to cancel.

Back To Top